Why Astralis Won DreamHack Masters Winter EU

Astralis are the winners of DreamHack Masters Winter EU after beating mousesports in an exciting Best-of-Five Grand Finals. But their performance was rather unconvincing and Lucas “Bubzkji” Andersen definitely didn’t prove to be an upgrade to the team.

The Danes kicked off this tournament with an upset loss to GODSENT. In the following games, however, they managed to stabilize and reeled in victories over Liquid and G2. In the playoffs, they faced Gambit and FURIA en route to the Grand Finals.

Going up against the Brazilians, the unveiled their newest masterplan for their six-man roster. On Nuke, they swapped in Bubzkji in place of Andreas “Xyp9x” Højsleth, who got to sit back and relax for once. His replacement earned himself a 1.16 rating, which wasn’t that impressive given the 16-6 score. The Danes quickly moved past FURIA and arrived in the Grand Finals alongside mousesports.

Astralis kicked things off with a 16-5 win on Train, but mouz answered back with an equally dominant 16-3 run on Inferno. This meant that both teams had lost their respective map picks by quite a decisive margin. In these Grand Finals, Bubzkji got another shot, as Astralis moved onto Nuke. There, however, he became somewhat of a weak point for his team. In this narrow 16-13 game, he only secured 15 kills on an 0.86 rating.

So Vertigo became the deciding factor. Astralis got the chance to end this match without moving onto a fifth map. Early on, it looked as though they might be able to do just that. But a comeback from mousesports brought them to overtime. Lukas “gla1ve” Rossander and Finn “karrigan” Andersen didn’t hold back and soon transitioned into a second overtime. Unfortunately, a tech issue forced the teams into a lengthy break, after which Astralis moved quickly to end the match on a 22-19 scoreline.

So Astralis are the winners of DreamHack Masters Winter EU, but the Best-of-Five uncovered some serious issues on the Danish side. They lost their own map pick, Inferno, on a 16-3 scoreline. But more importantly, they still haven’t found the right way to implement their sixth man yet.

WHY BUBZKJI IS NOT LIKE NIVERA

Without comparing the two on individual talent, there are still some differences between the roles of both players. Nivera feels like an extension of the roster, as if he really is on par with the rest of the players. Team Vitality give the impression of really being a six-man team. Astralis, on the other hand, still have this massive cut between the core roster and Bubzkji. This problems starts with him only replacing Xyp9x and imitating his roles, and ends with Astralis seemingly only utilizing him on Nuke.

More importantly, he is not nearly as scary as Nivera. The young Belgian player already topped the scoreboards in his first few matches with the team. He even out-gunned Mathieu “ZywOo” Herbaut on several occasions. Teams are rightfully frightened to see him enter the server. But Bubzkji, even in a best-case scenario, feels like a one-to-one replacement, and in the worst case, he feels like an outright downgrade. Maybe the Danes have to give him more space to breathe and they definitely have to develop a system in which he is more than just the shadow of Xyp9x.

ARE ASTRALIS NOW FAVORITES FOR THEIR UPCOMING TOURNAMENTS?

At the BLAST Premier: Fall Finals, they’ll be facing Natus Vincere and Team Vitality in the bracket early on. That is, if they actually win their matches. Both teams have proven to be a cut above the rest during IEM Beijing. The sixth Astralis man will not be able to change anything about that. On top of that, Natus Vincere and Team Vitality are well-rested now, whereas mousesports and Astralis have still been in a bitter fight about 36 hours back. So how well can these teams really be prepared for this upcoming tournament?

Astralis won DreamHack Masters Winter primarily because Natus Vincere and Team Vitality were not attending. Had they actually partaken in this tournament, the Danes would arguably not have made the Grand Finals. They showed up strong versus Liquid, G2, Gambit, and FURIA. But at the highest level of competition, they are still struggling. Can they really close the gap to the top within days and reach the level required to succeed over NaVi and Vitality?